The Generational Cliff

Steve Van Remortel

Guest Columnist

January 26, 2026

As business leaders scan the horizon for the trends most likely to shape their futures, many focus on technology, automation and AI – and rightfully so. 

Yet beneath these innovations lies a quieter force with far greater impact: demographics.

The United States is heading toward a Generational Cliff – a steep drop in the size of the generation entering the workforce compared with the one exiting it.

This shift is not speculative, it’s not theoretical – it’s math.

The decade ahead will reshape talent markets more dramatically than any technological trend.

For business leaders, understanding this cliff is essential preparation for the workforce realities of the next decade.

The math behind the cliff: A workforce getting smaller

Generation Alpha – those born roughly from 2010-24 – is significantly smaller than both Gen Z and the Millennials who preceded them.

In the United States, Gen Alpha currently numbers about 38.5 million people.

To understand how startling that is, compare it to the generations who arrived before them:

• Baby Boomers – 75 million
• Gen X – 66 million
• Gen Y/Millennials – 77 million
• Gen Z – 69 million

Gen Alpha is 44% smaller than Gen Z and almost 50% smaller than Millennials – making it the first time in modern history that an incoming generation is dramatically smaller than the workers they are meant to replace.

This decline isn’t temporary.

It reflects long-term demographic forces that have been building for nearly two decades.

Why is Gen Alpha so much smaller?

The answer lies in five major trends that intersected during Gen Alpha’s birth years:

Declining U.S. birthrates

Birthrates have been falling since the early 2000s.

Fertility dropped sharply after the 2008 recession and continued downward throughout the 2010s.

America is simply having fewer children than the generations before.

Economic constraints on families

Housing prices have soared, childcare costs have exploded and many younger adults waited longer to start families due to financial pressure and student debt.

Fewer families and smaller families produced a smaller generation.

Rising parental age

U.S. parents today are older than ever before.

This reduces lifetime childbearing years and results in fewer births per family.

Reduced immigration

Immigration historically boosted population growth among younger age groups.

But during the 2010s and early 2020s, immigration slowed significantly, contributing to fewer children born in the U.S.

Pandemic disruption

The COVID-19 pandemic produced a short but meaningful dip in births.

Families postponed having children amid health uncertainty, economic fear and career disruption.

Those “missing births” fall squarely within the Gen Alpha range.

Together, these trends explain why Gen Alpha is the smallest generation in the last century.

This is not a temporary dip that will suddenly correct itself.

It represents a new demographic reality.

What this means for the future workforce

By 2035, projections indicate that Gen Alpha will make up just 19% of the U.S. workforce. Compare that with the projected shares of other generations:

• Gen Z – 31%
• Millennials – 29%
• Gen X – 21%

This means that beginning in the early 2030s, the U.S. workforce will rely heavily on a generation almost half the size of the ones it follows.

And this occurs at the same time Baby Boomers and Gen X continue to retire in large numbers. 

As of September 2025, there are currently 7.67 million jobs open in the United States.

I have seen estimates that the generational cliff will lead to an estimated 85 million open jobs in the next decade.

The implications are profound:

• Fewer candidates for every open position
• Greater difficulty replacing retirees
• Higher competition for young talent
• Higher labor costs, especially for entry-level roles
• More pressure to develop internal talent pipelines

This is a structural talent shortage – not one tied to the economy, but to demographics.

The Generational Cliff is forcing organizations to think differently about attraction, retention, leadership development, succession planning and the employee experience.

Gen Alpha’s unique characteristics

Complicating the talent picture is the fact that Gen Alpha is not just small, it is distinct.

Fully digital from birth, raised during a time of rapid societal change and parented largely by Millennials, Gen Alpha will bring very different expectations into the workplace.

They will likely be expected to be:

• Highly digital and technologically fluent
• Diverse in background and perspective
• Values-driven and purpose-oriented
• Oriented toward personalized development
• Skilled at navigating information, but expecting speed and clarity

As a result, the future workforce will require leadership that is more transparent, more communicative and more human-centered than in previous eras.

A predictable cliff – and a chance to prepare

The Generational Cliff is not a surprise – it has been building for years.

Yet, few SMB leaders are truly preparing for it.

The good news is this demographic shift will unfold slowly.

Businesses have time – if they choose to use it. 

With time to prepare, it presents an opportunity, not a problem.

Early adopters have the potential to:

• Build cultures people want to join
• Retain talent for longer
• Develop leaders internally
• Reduce turnover
• Create workplaces where every generation thrives
• Use automation, AI and technology to help their workforce get more done in less time

The Generational Cliff is one of the most significant business challenges of the next decade – but it can also become one of the greatest strategic advantages for the businesses that prepare now.